[Again, the E-Mail Updates are available to you as part of both new and existing regular subscription; just request it by e-mail from johnwilliams@shadowstats.com .] Use the drop-down menu below to find highlights and links to Commentaries from the present and past months. While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation . This is because he states that these numbers have been manipulated over the past 25 years for nefarious political reasons. Surging prices still reflect the extraordinary Money Supply stimulus following the Pandemic-driven collapse. (15) April 5th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA) - Following a record 2022 Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit, the January and February 2023 Deficits deepened successively to their worst readings since October 2022, but narrower than in First-Half 2022. March 2023 New Home Sales gained by a headline, statistically insignificant 9.6% +/- 15.2% month-to-month, with a statistically insignificant year-to-year decline of 3.4% (-3.4%) +/- 12.7% for this near-term unstable series. Beyond Year One, Multi-Year, Crisis-Driven Collapses Need to Be Assessed Against Pre-Crisis Levels, or Stacked Two-Year Change, As Well As Year-to-Year Change Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. Commentary No. March 2023 New Home Sales gained by a headline, statistically insignificant 9.6% +/- 15.2% month-to-month, with a statistically insignificant year-to-year decline of 3.4% (-3.4%) +/- 12.7% for this near-term unstable series. The initial headline annualized quarterly estimate of inflation-adjusted First-Quarter 2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed doubly negative patterns of activity. Commentary No. John Williams, Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary (17) March 30th (Bureau of Economic Analysis BEA, See Note 2) -- Third and Final Estimate of Fourth Quarter 2022 (4q2022) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [The GDP Alternate Data Tab has been updated] - In continuing downside revision, the third-estimate of inflation-adjusted real 4q2022 GDP revised lower to an annualized quarter-to-quarter gain of 2.57%, in its third and final estimate, from its second estimate of 2.68%, and its initial estimate of 2.89%, versus 3.24% in 3q2022. The U.S. Dollar Is at Its Lowest Level Against the Swiss Franc Since January 2015, Down by 10.0% (-10.0%) Year-to-Year A Weak Dollar Is Highly Inflationary for the United States and Bullish for Gold Stock Indices Are At or Near All-Time Highs, Coming into the First Anniversary of the Pre-Pandemic Stock-Market Peaks and Subsequent Crashes Headline March 2023 Producer Price Index (PPI) annual inflation dropped sharply from 4.9% in February 2023 to 2.8% in March 2023, due to the relative easing against the extreme oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago Russian invasion of Ukraine. (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). Background definitions and related detailed discussion, historical data and graphs for each of the Money Supply Series were covered in Benchmark Commentary No. Shadow previously offered three subscription plans: Shadow Boost ($14.99 per month, or $11.99 per month with an annual subscription) with a basic gaming PC setup, Shadow Ultra ($29.99 per. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. As previously reviewed, the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its targeted Fed-Funds Rate by a minimal 0.25%, to 5.00%, citing hopes that the Banking-System Crisis would dampen the Economy and the FOMC-driven Inflation. Weakening U.S. Dollar, Rebounding Gold and Oil Prices Foreshadow Rising Inflation, Four Million Unemployed People Are Missing from the Headline Labor Force The response to those writings (the Primer Series available at the top-center of this page) was so strong that we started ShadowStats.com (Shadow Government Statistics) in 2004. Risk of Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse Has Accelerated With Democrats Taking Control of Both the White House and Congress Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses (16) April 3rd (Census Bureau) February 2023 Real Construction Spending) - Despite the usual upside revisions to the prior two months of reporting, February 2023 Real Construction Spending showed its 17th straight month of year-to-year decline (down by 9.5% (-9.5%) from February 2022) [see Note (4)], with First-Quarter 2023 activity track for its fourth consecutive quarter-to-quarter decline, and its sixth consecutive quarterly year-to-year decline. The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2 I also have provided testimony before Congress (details here). Those details are posted and graphed on the Alternate Data Tab. At the same time, the FOMC keeps hiking interest rates, in order to kill economic activity that is neither overheating nor driving the inflation, despite the publicly expressed claims of the FOMC and its Fed Chairman. L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S -- See the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE for the current FOMC coverage and detail of February and early March 2023 Monetary Conditions. (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). -- Noted regularly here, New Home Sales (likely the least-reliable, least-meaningful, least-significant and most heavily revised headline series published by the Census Bureau) continued to sink year-to-year. Given a moribund, underlying U.S. Economy, raising rates further [as had been heavily jawboned and promised by the Fed Chairman, among other FOMC members, until the most-recent March 2023 FOMC] likely will only exacerbate deteriorating economic conditions, without providing any meaningful inflation relief. ET]. (February 3rd 2023/April 5th 2022) U.S. GOVERNMENT DETERIORATING FISCAL CONDITIONS/ INTENSIFYING FISCAL CRISIS [In context of the United States once again at the brink of breaking its Debt Ceiling and risking default ] Grievously malfeasant U.S. Government fiscal policies continue to contribute meaningfully to the rapidly accelerating pace of U.S. Inflation. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. On Top of a Downside Revision, October Building Permits Monthly Change Flattened Out at a Statistically Significant 0.0%, Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, Some Biographical & Additional Background Information. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). November Industrial Production and Its Dominant Manufacturing Sector Showed Deepening Year-to-Year Declines, While the Mining Sector Showed a Narrowed Annual Plunge, Thanks to Rising Oil Prices Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. Informal Economy Sizes. Walter J. ShadowStats is Williams' attempt to provide an alternative to the official consumer price index (CPI), which he views as a flawed measure of what members of the general public have in mind when. March 7th builds: Power up the pink archer. Current liquidity and political risks and issues are intensified by potential Hyperinflation, long viewed by ShadowStats as the ultimate fate of the U.S. Dollar. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the monthly decline was 3.8% (-3.8%), with the year-to-year drop at 3.6% (-3.6%). Pandemic-Disrupted U.3 Unemployment Effectively Was 9.0% in November 2020, Not the Headlined 6.7% Effectively fully surveyed, Permits were down by a deepening, seasonally adjusted year-to-year drop of 24.8% (-24.8%) in March 2023, against a revised, narrowed 16.5% (-16.5%) [previously a 17.9% (-17.9%) February decline]. Any solid developments in the ever-deepening U.S. Government Fiscal Crisis will be covered here in the SYSTEMIC RISK Section. U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates Full-Year 2020 Annual GDP Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Was the Deepest Since the 1946 Post-World War II Economic Reset Old Numbers Showed Production Peaked in December 2018 and Flattened Out, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 3.75% Higher Than the Pre-Great Recession Peak In parallel, the year-to-year pace of March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate CPI inflation eased to 12.9% in March 2023, from 14.1%, from in February 2023. Moving higher to a 120.5% of its Pre-Pandemic Level, from 119.8% in February and 119.7% in January, March 2023 Basic M1 still is shy of its August 2022 unrevised record level of 123.2%. That said, in practice, such should be a major economic consideration for the FOMC and the Administration, going forward, as they hike Interest Rates, reduce their Balance Sheet and look to break the Budget Deficit Federal Debt Ceiling. 2023 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams. Near Record Growth of Currency in Circulation Foreshadows Inflation Risk THIS WEEKS PENDING DAILY UPDATE COVERAGE OF FOMC AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (Monday, May 1st to Friday, May 5th): (Monday) March 2023 Construction Spending will be covered Tuesday, (Late Wednesday and Thursday) May 2023 FOMC Meeting, (Thursday) March 2023 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit, (Friday) April 2023 Employment and Unemployment. The latest Economic and Inflation releases were covered earlier in the Opening Section of this DAILY UPDATE. ET]. Note also that the period of time in which the blue line departs from the CPI transformation is 2007-2009, a time in which inflation mania was at its peak. March 2023 Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization showed meaningful downside benchmark revisions to previously reported activity, but continued in a third month of upturn in context of Federal Reserve regular overestimation of headline Industrial Production. One of my early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. The projected continuous rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that current policy is unsustainable. Allowing for the 2021 Unfunded Liabilities, reflected here, that Debt-to-GDP ratio already was 552% at the end of Fiscal Year 2021. FOMC action looms this week, amidst signs of a tanking Economy and a serious Inflation problem. By its very nature, the shadow economy is difficult to measure. Economic, FOMC, financial-market, political and social circumstances all continue to evolve along with the Pandemic and its aftermath in still-unfolding, extraordinary political circumstances. All previous Commentaries are available in, or accessible from, the upper left-hand column of this www.shadowstats.com Home Page. Annual growth in Payrolls has been slowing since February 2022. Real year-to-year growth patterns were kinder to the fourth-quarter GDP, with year-to-year growth increasing from 0.88% to 1.57%, and with the gain against Pre-Pandemic Peak Activity increasing from 5.03% in 4q2022 to 5.31% in 1q2023. The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce. Primers & Reports. IMPORTANT: Commentary postings are advised directly to Subscribers by coincident e-mail, along with a direct link to the posted Commentary and any needed login detail. (11) April 14th (CassInfo.com) The March 2023 Cass Freight Index release noted that The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 1.0% m/m in March as freight markets continue to work through an extended soft patch. That monthly decline of 1.0% (-1.0%) was not seasonally adjusted, with a related unadjusted year-to-year drop of 4.0% (-4.0%). Measured against its Pre-Pandemic level, 4q2022 Real GDP had gained 5.03% [previously 5.06% and 5.11%]. While shifting focus to the troubled banking system, FOMC hopes and activities still are concentrated on some way of triggering a Recession, again, ostensibly to help contain inflation otherwise being driven by a non-existent overheating economy, where the mounting inflation pressures primarily are due otherwise, to continuing, extreme levels of Money Supply creation. The growth of the shadow economy can set off a destructive cycle. The Real Housewives of Atlanta The Bachelor Sister Wives 90 Day Fiance Wife Swap The Amazing Race Australia Married at First Sight The Real Housewives of Dallas My 600-lb Life Last Week Tonight with . Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Coming Inflation and Market Turmoil, Deepening Economic Woes and Soaring Inflation Ahead MARCH 2023 MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE -- (April 25th, Federal Reserve Board [FRB], with ShadowStats Supplement). Best Wishes -- John Williams. First-Quarter 2021 GDP Remains at Risk of Relapsing into Quarterly Contraction April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%) (18) March 21st to 22nd (FOMC). Please click on a chart or link to view details. Surging Monetary Base, Reserves and Currency Indicate Intensifying Systemic Problems Having largely nonfunctional Executive and Congressional branches of the U.S. Government does little to help stabilize the domestic Economy or Inflation. Separately, though, the Fed also purportedly has been reducing its balance sheet assets, which should slow or cut the Money Supply growth and inflation. In the Latest Four Months, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Has Leveled Off Around 12%, Worst Since Before World War II, Other than for the Pandemic Watch part 2 on hyperinflation: https://youtu.be/jzwU_UOwVMIUsing the same data collection and calculation methodologies as the Bureau of Labor Statistics us. EXPANDED SHADOWSTATS ALERT: - Intensifying Risks of a Highly Inflationary, Major U.S. Economic Downturn. Shy of a near-term happy resolution to the Russia-Ukraine War, the circumstance only has exacerbated the ShadowStats Hyperinflation pre-Russia-Ukraine War outlook of the last year or so, where: Despite recent relative weakness in gold prices and related Central Bank or other market machinations, the ShadowStats broad outlook in the weeks and months ahead has remained for: (1) A continuing and renewed deepening (potentially hyperinflationary) U.S. economic collapse, reflected in (2) Continued flight to safety in precious metals, with accelerating upside pressures on gold and silver prices, (3) Mounting renewed selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, against the Swiss Franc and other traditionally stronger currencies, and (4) Despite recent extreme Stock Market volatility and current near-record high levels in the popular U.S. stock-market indices, high risk of major instabilities and heavy stock-market selling continues, complicated by ongoing direct, supportive market interventions arranged by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen, as head of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (a.k.a. 1461. -- Despite recent GDP Benchmark Revisions and current gimmicked reporting, key Economic Series show not only that the Pandemic-driven Economic Collapse was worse than headlined, but also that the still-unfolding Recovery has been much weaker than indicated. Shadowstats primarily focuses on inflation, but also keeps track of the money supply, unemploymentand GDPby utilizing methodologies abandoned by previous administrations from the Clinton era to the Great Depression. April 2023 Annual Benchmark Revisions lowered historical levels and growth estimates for inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales back to January 2021, likely foreshadowing some downside revisions to headline GDP in its later 2023 benchmarking. Others: Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. Against its Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), ShadowStats March 2023 Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [83% of the old pre-May 2020 M1]) moved higher to 120.5%, from a revised 119.8% (previously 119.3%) in February, still shy of its historic peak of 123.2% in August 2022. Separately, extended full coverage and graphs of both the Money Supply and Monetary Base and their components follows in the pending Subscriber-only Daily Update E-mail. Yet, the latest January 2023 Money Supply reporting still showed an actual increase in Basic M1, with an intensifying flight to systemic liquidity, as posted and reviewed in later paragraphs. The recent string of extreme FOMC rate hikes certainly has not. Signals of renewed, faltering activity increasingly have taken on the mantle of a new Recession. Although I am known formally as Walter J. Williams, my friends call me John.For 30 years, I have been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting. March 2023 Housing Starts dropped year-to-year by a meaningful 17.2% (-17.2%) +/- 9.1%, with a 90% confidence interval, versus a revised 19.4% (-19.4%) [previously 18.4% (-18.4%)] in February. Despite numerous, separate indications of the economy stalling or turning down anew (see the earlier GDP, Consumer Sentiment, New Orders for Durable Goods, Industrial Production, and Construction Spending), such broadly is ignored at present. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. Federal Reserve Sees Continuing Need for Inflation-Boosting Monetary Stimulus, With No Economic Recovery Expected Before 2023 There Is No V-Shaped Recovery Yet, Fourth-Quarter 2020 New-Home Sales Contracted, as Did Real Retail Sales, Suggestive of Consumers Facing Intensifying Pandemic and Liquidity Issues Mind the Aftershocks: Post-Tantrum Market Calm Unnerves Traders . Shadowstats.com is a website that claims that the government does a piss poor job of keeping track of certain statistics. That said, more commonly, sharp annual declines in recent months have tended to be statistically significant, but not the month-to-month changes. For example, they . -- A little closer to real-world numbers, initial year-to-year headline March 2023 PPI Construction Inflation eased to 15.6%, from a minimally revised 16.1% (previously 16.2%) in February 2023. Your Shadow subscription. Where monthly jobs growth in the key Manufacturing, Retail Sales and Construction Sectors has turned flat-to-minus, the Leisure and Hospitality Sector showed continued strong, albeit slowing monthly growth, still holding shy by more than 2% (-2%) of ever recovering its pre-Pandemic level of activity. The best Honkai: Star Rail Trailblazer build is all about . Single-family auths flat in Sep/Oct. 1461. HEADLINE ECONOMIC, INFLATION AND MONETARY COVERAGE OF THE LAST MONTH AND OTHER KEY NUMBERS: (1) April 28th (University of Michigan). MARCH 2023 FOMC (May 2023 FOMC coverage is pending May 3rd) - The Federal Reserves March 2023 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the targeted Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points [0.25%] for second period, largely as expected, slowed from the 0.50 basis point upside rate hike in December 2022, and the previous 0.75 basis point increments, to a new range of 4.75% to 5.00%.
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